steamforecast-mcp

Steamforecast-mcp is a Steam game revenue forecaster focused on launch budgeting under uncertainty. It presents calibrated revenue ranges rather than point estimates and is described as helping users stress-test a Steam launch budget. The service is aimed at launch planning for indie games, where a failed launch can waste marketing spend.

Its core forecast includes a calibrated revenue cone with P10, P50, and P90 lifetime revenue estimates and empirically validated coverage. The cone widens when a game differs from the 77K-app calibration corpus. Free forecasts include a storefront-only calibrated cone, a Boxleiter cross-check, top reasons, a comp set, and a sample what-if lever. The launch report adds a wishlist-aware cone, every what-if decision lever, and Total Lift Attribution. The attribution feature takes a Steamworks Wishlists by day CSV and recovers campaign wishlists that Steam’s UTM dashboard misses. The site also describes honest causal estimates of marketing-lever effects with confidence intervals, including examples such as festival appearances, demo releases, and trailer revisions. Comp-set evidence is based on five or more real launches similar by genre and tag overlap, with actual revenue figures and mapped wishlist trajectories.

Delivery is through an authenticated dashboard. The forecast can be rerun through the launch window as wishlists grow, and the page also mentions an open forecaster directly. A free forecast is available for any game, while the $299 one-time launch report is per launch and does not require a subscription. The report is refundable in full for 14 days if no Steamworks data has been uploaded, and 50% refundable thereafter.

The page also says the published methodology is open and licensed under CC BY 4.0. A July 2026 report cites causal-forest benchmarks from 10,403 launches and notes that multiplayer raises median week-1 revenue by 1.26x, while localization is statistically a coin flip for launch week.