Central Bank Watch

Central Bank Watch provides detailed analysis and live probabilities of interest rate changes for major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of India, and Bank of Canada. The platform delivers market-implied rate change probabilities for each upcoming policy meeting, showing current and theoretical rates, policy stances, and the likelihood of rate hikes, cuts, or no change. These probabilities are calculated using methodologies based on futures curves, and the site notes recent upgrades in how probabilities are derived, such as solving for all upcoming meetings simultaneously for certain banks.

Beyond rate probabilities, Central Bank Watch offers a suite of financial tools and trackers. These include sovereign yield curves for nine countries, a recession probability dashboard using the NY Fed probit model, a national mortgage rate tracker covering seven countries, and the "Hawkometer," which analyzes speech sentiment across nine central banks. The site also features comparative global outlooks, tracking average rates, policy divergence, and synchronization across jurisdictions. Users can explore expected policy rate paths for multiple central banks, comparing current market expectations with those from previous weeks.

The platform aggregates and presents real-time news related to central bank policy, with coverage spanning major institutions such as the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England. This news section includes statements and speeches from central bank officials, providing context for monetary policy developments and expectations.

Central Bank Watch is delivered as a web-based service, offering interactive dashboards and tools for financial market participants, analysts, and others interested in global monetary policy trends.